2022 NFL Week 1 picks against the spread: Baker Mayfield’s Panthers edge out Browns; Cowboys upset Tom Brady – CBS Sports

2022 NFL Week 1 picks against the spread: Baker Mayfield's Panthers edge out Browns;  Cowboys upset Tom Brady - CBS Sports

If Thursday night’s opener is any indication of how Week 1 will go, home dogs are in a lot of trouble. Buffalo destroyed the Rams in front of the entire world, flexing some road chalk muscles to kick off the 2022 NFL season. I’m more inclined to expect a little more chaos than Thursday suggested, especially when there’s so much unknown with so many different teams hitting the road as favorites.

With that said, I’m picking a Super Bowl matchup between a pair of road favorites from Week 1. My pick this year is Crows over Eaglesthe very first bird match* we saw in a Super Bowl (*according to John Breech, who almost certainly didn’t research it, so let’s not be too aggressive with any fact-checking).

People are too low in Baltimore this year, getting a motivated Lamar Jackson and a much healthier roster. John Harbaugh will have this team fully back in the hunt for the #1 seed.

As for the Eagles, people are bizarrely opposed to the idea that Jalen Hurts can make a leap forward. He’s only 24 years old — it just feels like he’s closer to 30 because of how long he’s been in the public eye. Philly is deep on the offensive and defensive lines and upgraded big time at receiver with the AJ Brown trade.

The Invoices look like justifiable favorites after the opening game, but it’s a long season ahead.

Everyone NFL odds is via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 1 Picks

Crows at Jets

Sunday, 1 pm ET
CBS | Stream: Most important+ (Click here)

Latest Odds:

New York Jets +6.5

Joe Flacco revenge game! I didn’t see that coming when we started preparing for the 2022 season. There’s a chance he’s an upgrade over Zach Wilson, at least for this opening Week 1 matchup against Flacco’s old team. By 2021, Baltimore had a dominant Week 1 run. Even with the overtime loss to the raiders last year, the Ravens have a +119 point differential in opening weeks since 2018. Lack of a Lamar Jackson contract only helps the Ravens in my opinion. They basically encouraged him to pull a Flacco and bet on himself. Add in Duane Brown missing at left tackle and this could get ugly for the Jets if Baltimore is in typical Week 1 form.

The choice: Ravens 35, Jets 13
Props, Best Bets: N/A

Sunday, 1 pm ET
CBS | Stream: Most important+ (Click here)

Latest Odds:

Carolina Panthers PK

Baker Mayfield revenge game! I saw this coming with Carolina desperate to upgrade at the quarterback position. Considering Sam Darnold’s injury, it’s an extremely good thing they did. It might not be great for the Browns — with Deshaun Watson suspended, it’s now Jacoby Brissett or bust. I’m leaning, even though the Browns don’t have a bad roster. The Panthers simply have a motivated Baker, a healthy Christian McCaffrey and an upgraded offensive line and should be good enough out of the gate — last year — to take down a Watson-less Browns team.

The Choice: Panthers 24, Browns 17
bets: Panthers -1.5

Sunday, 1 pm ET
CBS | Stream: Most important+ (Click here)

Latest Odds:

Houston Texans +7

Outrageous stat of the weekend: the Colts haven’t won a Week 1 game since 2013. That’s multiple coaches, multiple quarterbacks, multiple GMs, everything. Just obscene to go almost 10 years without winning a Week 1 game. Houston feels extremely hot this year, with a bunch of veterans, and the Colts defense should take a step back under Gus Bradley with a questionable secondary. The Texans probably live to win this game outright.

The Choice: Texans 24, Colts 21
bets: Houston +7

Jaguars at Artist Formerly Known as WFT

Sunday, 1 pm ET
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (Click here)

Latest Odds:

Commanders of Washington -2.5

The last football game Carson Wentz played was the infamous Week 18 loss to the Jaguars in 2021, preventing the Colts from making the playoffs and launching Jim Irsay’s campaign to get Wentz out of Indy. The NFL schedules are a merciless mess — Wentz’s first game in 2022 and his new team (with its terrible new name) hosts Jacksonville. The bonus? Wentz’s old coach, Doug Pederson, is at the helm of the Jags now. That update alone makes me love Jacksonville in this place.

The Choice: Jaguars 21, AFKAWFT 17
bets: Jaguars +2.5

Sunday, 1 pm ET
CBS | Stream: Most important+ (Click here)

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins -3.5

I can’t wait for the Dolphins to win by 45 points, followed by a full offense in my mentions. I can actually wait for that, but what I can’t wait to see is what the Patriots offense looks like under the direction of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Most likely it will be Bill Belichick with a heavy hand on the offense, but the whole setup is morbidly intriguing regardless of who is calling plays.

The Choice: Patriots 17, Dolphins 14
Bets: to pass

Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (Click here)

Latest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys +2.5

It’s doubtful that there has been a team more “sold” by the general public over the past few weeks than the Cowboys. It’s mainly because of Tyron Smith’s injury — Dallas is expected to be without its superstar left tackle until at least December. Dak Prescott has struggled in the past without Smith on the field and it’s not unreasonable to wonder if it causes long-term problems with the offense. In the short term it’s also a problem, but the Cowboys have been given enough time to prepare for this Week 1 game that I think they can surprise a Bucs team dealing with its own litany of injuries on the offensive line. Dan Quinn will likely use Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence in multiple spots on the field, including the interior, to take advantage of the Bucs’ injuries and potential pressure on Tom Brady. It’s probably best to wait for a kick to catch the Cowboys, hoping it goes to +3.

The Choice: Cowboys 31, Pirates 27
bets: Cowboys +2.5

Monday, 8:15 PM ET

Latest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks +6.5

This is being billed as the Russell Wilson Revenge Game but I think it’s a bigger motivational matchup for Pete Carroll, who just sent Russ packing in a trade to the Broncos and who would LOVE to let people know that Seattle can still win without Russ in the city It won’t be easy, but none of the Seahawks’ games this year will be “easy” — I’d bet on anything that Carroll wants to screw up every game this season, making them downright slogs. Think back to the 2010 and 2011 Seahawks games when you picture what we’ll get from Seattle this year. The Unders should be a big asset early this season for the Seahawks and the offensive machine led by Geno Smith.

The Choice: Seahawks 21, Broncos 17
bets: Below 44.5

Other Scores

saints 24, Falcons 21
Eagles 35, lions 17
Steelers 24, Bengals 21
49ers 35, Bears 14
packers 31, vikings 28
bosses 31, Cardinals 24
Chargers 27, Raiders 24
Giants 17, Titans 14

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