Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin 3 fight predictions, odds, undercard, preview, expert pick, date – CBS Sports

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin 3 fight predictions, odds, undercard, preview, expert pick, date - CBS Sports

If you’re wondering why it took four years for Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin to pick up where their all-action rivalry left off heading into Saturday’s trilogy fight, GGG is right there with you.

“This is not a question for me,” Golovkin told “Morning Kombat” last week. “I insisted on a trilogy the next day after the judges gave the win to Canelo [in the rematch].”

In defense of Alvarez (57-2-2, 39 KOs), the undisputed super middleweight champion has only fought at middleweight again since his 2018 rematch with Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KOs), who still holds a pair of world titles titles at 160 pounds. Alvarez, 32, will look to defend his four-pack of titles this weekend inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (DAZN PPV, 8 pm ET subscribe now) in the first fight of their rivalry taking place at 168 pounds.

Alvarez, who is coming off a decision loss to WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol in May, didn’t seem like he wanted the trilogy despite how much money DAZN paid both shortly after launching in the US in 2018 in hopes of landing a third. to fight A big part of that was the bad blood between them, fueled not only by a couple of disputed decisions in which GGG felt robbed but also by the steroid allegations aimed at Alvarez after failing a drug test before their rematch.

Asked by CBS Sports on Wednesday, however, if he was motivated this time to take on the challenge, Alvarez changed his tune.

“Yes, I want to [the trilogy],” Alvarez said. “And if people want it, I really want it. I wanted to come back strong so I’m really excited to be here. I’m ready for Saturday.”

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While it’s clear from Golovkin that he still bears ill will towards Alvarez, who was lucky to salvage a controversial draw in 2017 before defeating GGG in their rematch via a disputed majority decision, he refused to go so far as to say the third fight was personal. According to trainer Johnathon Banks, who replaced Abel Sanchez after the second Alvarez fight, that’s exactly where his fighter needs to be.

“The best way for G to act is to be emotionless,” Banks told CBS Sports. “Now, that might not work for every fighter but for this fighter, the best way to go into this fight is to keep it and keep his emotions at home. If he wants to take his emotions out in the locker room, fine. But he doesn’t need to them in the ring. It’s going to be a hell of a fight, regardless. As the fight continues, we definitely want the win and want to close the third chapter of this situation. But emotions play no. part in it.”

The first two fights were PPV blockbusters and ultimately exceeded expectations as classic action fights with a high level of skill and intensity. The main difference, however, between the four-year gap between fights entering this weekend is that Álvarez ascended to the throne as pound-for-pound king across several divisions in the interim while Golovkin, 40, began to show his age.

Golovkin, who enters as a 4-1 underdog, was the betting favorite before each of the first two fights. He admitted that age has made recovery more difficult, which is something that Banks, a disciple of the late Emanuel Steward’s Kronk Gym, has worked hard to make up for.

“It’s all about training smarter and just being more efficient at the things you do well,” Banks said. “When you’re young, the goal is to train hard no matter what. When you get older, you have to train smarter. That 40-year-old guy is completely different than your average 40-year-old guy. Right now, he’s just fine-tuning as much as possible so as not to overwork himself.”

However, Golovkin has looked much slower despite going 4-0 since the second Alvarez fight. He also took far more punishment in return than fans have ever seen, including a disputed decision win over Sergiy Derevyanchenko, who was struggling for fight honors in 2019.

What doesn’t help Golovkin is that Alvarez has steadily evolved in recent years from a counter-boxer to a stalking knockout threat, which has come as a huge shock to those who have seen him carry his power up in weight with him moving up to 168 and 175 pounds. .

Both fighters have huge chins and neither has been taken down or stopped as a pro. Golovkin, in fact, continues to maintain that he has yet to be buzzed once despite closing in on 400 combined amateur and professional fights. However, most believe he will need to lean hard into his superpower okay to have a shot at upsetting his fresher foe.

“I use this motto all the time: I’d rather have it and not need it than need it and not have it,” Banks said. “I agree it’s going to be a hell of a fight. My wish and desire is for G to close the show in dramatic fashion but, believe me, Canelo can take a punch too. He’s not one to push shots away from much bigger guys. He took a right hand hand after G’s right hand from which 90% of people fell and never recovered. He took it like it was a piece of meat and he ate it and kept coming.”

Alvarez, who has openly said that he is preparing deliver the knockout this weekend and to remove any lingering talk of controversy, believes that the third (and presumably final) meeting between the two living legends will also be the most exciting.

“I think this is going to be the best of the three, I think it’s going to be the best,” Alvarez said. “He’s obviously going to bring the best he can because, you know, everybody talks about his age. I’m going to bring everything to come back stronger than ever.

“This fight is very important to my legacy because it will go down in boxing history after this fight. That’s why we fought the three times, right? I think this is one of the best rivalries in the history of boxing.”

The undercard is filling up with some interesting names returning to the ring. Jesse Rodriguez looks to defend his WBC super flyweight title against Israel Gonzalez in the co-feature. Austin Williams is back as he takes on Kieron Conway in the middleweight division. Diego Pacheco and Enrique Collazo duke it out in the super middleweight division. And veteran Gabe Rosado is back in a super middleweight clash against Ali Akhmedov.

Battle card, probability

  • Canelo Alvarez (c) -500 vs. Gennadiy Golovkin +380, undisputed super middleweight championship
  • Jesse Rodriguez (c) -1200 vs. Israel Gonzalez +750, WBC super flyweight championship
  • Austin Williams -575 vs. Kieron Conway +425, WBA “international” middleweight championship
  • Diego Pacheco -2500 vs. Enrique Collazo +1200, super middleweights
  • Ali Akhmedov -700 vs. Gabriel Rosado +500, super middleweights

Prediction

It was Albert Einstein who once described the definition of insanity as doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. For Golovkin, Saturday’s trilogy will take place in the same ring, against the same opponent and in front of the same state commission as the first two fights, which he believes he was robbed of victory.

Golovkin will also box in front of two judges who have played an important role in the process up to this point: Steve Weisfeld won the rematch 115-113 for Alvarez, as did Dave Moretti, who also had it 115-113 for Golovkin in the first fight. Judge David Sutherland, a newcomer to this rivalry, rounds out the trio along with referee Russell Mora.

Six different scorecards were submitted during the two fights and only one of those had Golovkin winning. Aside from any possible corruption that GGG often implied, there seems to be a big reason why those tasked with declaring a winner ultimately favored Alvarez.

Although Golovkin outscored Alvarez by an average of 40 total punches over both fights, Alvarez held the edge in power punches landed, power punching percentage and body shots. If GGG were to apply the same exact strategy to try to solve Alvarez without increasing the risk he is willing to take to compensate for his loss of speed and stamina, not only a repeated decision loss is probably in order, so it could be the first stop of his big. career

Golovkin connected on only six and eight body punches landed, respectively, in the first two fights. He also had trouble landing his right hand in any form against the much faster Alvarez, who employed precise upper trunk movement to avoid said shots opening up counter opportunities.

On paper, Golovkin’s jab-heavy style is the perfect blueprint to give Alvarez a fit. He cuts off the ring as well as anyone historically and can use his spike as both a rangefinder and a weapon. It is a draft, it can be argued that Bivol used to solve Alvarez in May.

But in this case, Bivol was a natural light heavyweight. Golovkin will move up to super middleweight for the first time, meaning the size advantage he once held over the former junior middleweight in Alvarez has since been erased by the Mexican star’s dramatic increase in weight.

Should GGG go for broke and look for the knockout as his only hope to win? Not necessarily, especially given Alvarez’s equally stubborn chin. But he’ll have to fight as physically as he ever has in the clinch to slow down his opponent and he’ll have to show a level of urgency that just hasn’t been there as of late in his biggest (and closest) fights before.

Expect Alvarez to start slowly and effectively trying to navigate how much juice GGG has left. But once he makes the adjustment to move forward, similar to what Alvarez did in the rematch, weakening Golovkin to the body late while walking him seems likely.

Given Golovkin’s arrogance and his incredible punch resistance, it wouldn’t be a major surprise that this rivalry reached a 36th and final round. But make no mistake about Golovkin’s real chances. Unless he wants to significantly change his style to compensate for his physical decline and make gambles in ways we haven’t seen before, a second straight decision loss feels inevitable.

Choose: Alvarez through UD12

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