I faded the Titans in Week 1 because they are due to regress in some key metrics that are primarily driven by luck. They were 6-2 in one-point games last season but are already 0-1 this year.
There is no doubt that the Bills are the best team in the NFL right now. I just think 10 points is a little too much to give up. I project it closer to 8.5.
As of Monday morning, 65% of the action came on the Bills, but the line stayed at 10. I think a lot of the sharper money came on Tennessee. This seems like a bit of an overreaction line from Week 1, as much as I love the Bills this season.
Ed Oliver (ankle) being ruled out is a big hit to Buffalo’s defense, especially against Derrick Henry, and maybe being without Davis is a blow to the offense.
Mike Vrabel and the Titans should be able to keep this one pretty close after a terrible Week 1 performance.
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With Davis out, I expect Crowder’s playing time to increase to around 60% routes run tonight. Crowder saw a healthy 33% target per route run in his Bills debut against the Rams, and he had a solid 6.3 Depth of Target Average.
With all this in mind, I project Crowder for 4.2 receptions and to cross this line 62% of the time.
FanDuel has Crowder over 3.5 receptions at +104, as of 6 pm ET.
Editor’s Note, 5:24 pm ET: Gabriel Davis will reportedly miss Monday Night Football against the Titans with an ankle injury.
Davis appeared on the injury report Saturday because of an ankle injury he reportedly suffered in practice last week. There is no word if he will play in this one.
However, I like to grab this number now because he will have to suit up for this bet to be in play. If he is banned, you get your money back.
If Davis is active, that means he’s closer to 100% than we realize. I doubt the Invoices would risk playing him if he wasn’t, especially in Week 2. Buffalo has enough weapons in the passing game to survive without Davis for a week.
If Davis is active tonight, we’ll likely see his prop move closer to the 54.5-55.5 range. The Titans‘cornerback depth could be an issue with Elijah Molden on injured reserve and Kristian Fulton out.
I project Davis closer to 56.5 assuming he plays.
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