While there are 12 teams moving on to the postseason to compete for a World Series title, the other 18 organizations are looking to the future, including where they might pick in the 2023 Draft.
In the past, at the conclusion of the regular season, a rough pass at the first-round order was possible based on the reverse order of the standings. But thanks to the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, there’s a new wrinkle in play when it comes to the Draft.
For the first time, the order of the top six Draft picks will be determined by lottery instead of simply being the reverse order of last year’s standings, with the lottery expected to take place at the Winter Meetings in San Diego in early December.
The teams with the three worst records in 2022 — the Nationals, A’s and Pirates — have the best chance (16.5 percent each) of getting the No. 1 overall pick in the lottery, though all 18 non-playoff teams will have the best choice. a chance to land it. The other teams will have decreasing percentages in reverse order of their records, down to 0.23 percent for the non-playoff club with the highest winning percentage.
As in previous years, any tie in regular-season record is broken by the record in the previous year, continuing with the record from each subsequent previous year until the tie is broken.
Draft lottery odds for #1 pick
1. Nationals (55-107), 16.5 pct
2. A’s (60-102), 16.5
3. Pirates (62-100), 16.5
4. Reds (62-100), 13.25
5. Royal family members (65-97), 10.0
6. Tigers (66-96), 7.50
7. Rangers (68-94), 5.50
8. Rockies (68-94), 3.90
9. Marlins (69-93), 2.70
10. Angels (73-89), 1.80
11. D-backs (74-88), 1.40
12. Offspring (74-88), 1.10
13. Twins (78-84), 0.90
14. Red Sox (78-84), 0.76
15. White Sox (81-81), 0.62
16. Giants (81-81), 0.48
17. Orioles (83-79), 0.36
18. Brewers (86-76), 0.23
Teams that receive revenue sharing cannot receive a lottery pick for more than two consecutive years and those that do not receive revenue sharing payments cannot receive a top-six pick in consecutive Drafts. In addition, a club that is ineligible for the lottery cannot pick higher than 10th overall.
The Draft will remain at 20 rounds, and after the first round, the non-postseason teams will pick in reverse order of winning percentage. In all 20 rounds, the playoff clubs will select in reverse order of their postseason finish (Wild Card losers, Division Series loser, Championship Series loser, World Series loser, World Series winner). Within each of those playoff groups, teams will be ordered by revenue sharing status and then reverse order by winning percentage.
With six picks, the MLB lottery stretches deeper than that of any major American sports league. The first four selections of the NBA and the top two of the NHL are subject to a lottery, while the NFL has none.
If the Nationals get the No. 1 pick, it will be the first time they’ve had the No. 1 pick since they took Bryce Harper in 2010, a year after they also took Stephen Strasburg 1-1. The A’s, with the second-best odds to win the lottery, last had the No. 1 pick back in 1965, when they took Rick Monday as the first-ever Draft pick in Major League history. The Pirates took Henry Davis #1 overall in the 2021 Draft. The Reds have never picked first, selecting No. 2 recently, in both 2016 (Nick Senzel) and 2017 (Hunter Greene). Rounding out the top five in lottery odds, the Royals have only picked 1-1 once in franchise history, taking Luke Hochevar in 2006, but they’ve picked No. 2 three times, most recently when they got Bobby Witt Jr. 2019.
It’s far too early to know who will be the top pick in 2023, but MLB Pipeline recently put Indiana prep outfielder Max Clark at the top. list of high school prospects and Louisiana State outfielder Dylan Crews at No. 1 on the college list. A lot will change between now and the Draft next July, which will be held in Seattle, the site of the 2023 All-Star Game.