Thursday Night Football Picks, Prediction: Colts vs Broncos Preview – The Action Network

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Colts vs. Broncos

A meeting of two offenses without their star running backs takes center stage on Thursday Night Football as the Colts travel to face the Broncos.

Denver is 2-2 under rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett, while Indianapolis is 1-2-1, although its only win came against the bosses.

Let’s try to find an edge in this game.

Colts vs. Broncos Matchup Analysis

Toggle the submenus to hide or show as the packers and vikings match statistically:

Colts vs. Broncos DVO panas
Overall DVOA 32 8
Pass DVOA 30 6
Rush DVOA 32 20
Overall DVOA 24 13
Pass DVOA 17 27
Rush DVOA 26 2

When the Colts Have the Ball

The Colts offense has been terrible through the first four weeks of the season, ranking dead last in DVOA. Now they will be without their best player, Jonathan Taylor, this one.

A lot of the blame can be placed on Matt Ryan, who looked like a Carson Wentz slump to start the season. Out of 32 qualified quarterbacks, Ryan ranks 23rd in adjusted net yards per attempt, 19th in QB rating and 27th in Expected Points Added per game.

Ryan has performed like a top 20-25 QB so far this season. His poor EPA per game could most likely be attributed to the fact that he leads the league with nine fumbles on the season, two of which have resulted. Titans the ball in the red zone last week and became 14 points. These costly turnovers were devastating for the Colts early in the season, but I can’t imagine a veteran like Ryan continuing to make these types of mistakes. We also have to remember that back in Week 2, he was without his top two WRs, which was one of the many reasons for the Colts’ embarrassing 24-0 loss to the. Jaguars.

The Colts have been a fairly balanced team this year, ranking 19th in early-down pass rush (in neutral situations). However, I expect them to be top-heavy with Taylor out of the lineup and they will likely run more packages with pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines likely leading the backfield.

When the Broncos Have the Ball

The Broncos will also be without starting RB Javonte Williams, who suffered a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season. However, the Broncos should be fine with Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone taking over the backfield, and they also added Latavius ​​Murray on Monday.

This is also a matchup the Broncos will likely attack through the air as the Colts defense is second in DVOA against the run but 27th against the pass.

One of the things that plagued the Broncos was their inability to score in the red zone. A very low 30% of red-zone drives have resulted in a TD this season, which is last in the NFL. Two of those drives ended with fumbles inside the 10-yard line. I have to imagine that figure will regress to league average, especially as Russell Wilson gets comfortable in the new scheme.

Both offenses performed below expectations and will be without their starting RBs this week.

I expect a more pass-heavy game plan from both teams, who currently rank in the bottom six in red zone TD%. I expect both teams to have better luck in the red zone going forward and that could happen as soon as tonight. 80% of the action was down here, but I think that’s more of an overreaction to the first four weeks of the season.

I’m projecting this closer to 43.5 so I like the value we’re getting here, especially considering 43 is a key number. It’s 42.5 at BetMGM and FanDuel, but you can get a maximum of 42 other books.

I still just consider this “lean” at the moment. Definitely follow me in the Action app to get notified if I finish locking this bet.

Select: Lean To Over 42

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