WATCH: Padres’ Jurickson Profar ejected after arguing crucial check swing call in NLCS Game 3 – CBS Sports

WATCH: Padres' Jurickson Profar ejected after arguing crucial check swing call in NLCS Game 3 - CBS Sports

The ninth inning of the Philadelphia Phillieseventual 4-2 win above the San Diego Padres in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series on Friday was punctuated by a controversial checked-swing call against Jurickson Profar.

With a runner on first and no outs, Profar began to bid on a full count inside a fastball from Filly closer Seranthony Domínguez but tried to control his swing. To the naked eye, he appeared to do so successfully, but he was called out by third base umpire Todd Tichenor. Profar, immediately indignant at the call, made his objections known, and he was ejected. Here’s a look:

Now for some screenshots that show the barrel of Profar’s bat at its furthest point in the swing (or non-swing, if you prefer):


Somewhat notoriously, the MLB rulebook doesn’t quite define what is or isn’t a swing, and umpires are left to make such calls based on judgment and, well, maybe oral tradition. Typically, an umpire will call it a swing if the barrel tip crosses the front of the plate or the foul line. Without an angle that approximates Tichenor’s view along that third-base foul line, we can’t really say definitively if the call was right or wrong based on the video and photos above. Anecdotally, most observers in real time seemed to think it wasn’t a swing, but, again, we didn’t have Tichenor’s angle on things.

“I thought it was really big. I thought I wasn’t going. It should have been a walk,” Profar told reporters later.

What is indisputable is that the call that turned a walk into a strikeout significantly diminished the Padres’ chances of making a comeback. If Profar walked, then the Padres would have runners on first and second and no outs. Teams in those circumstances averaged 1.51 runs in those innings. The Padres, of course, were down by two runs. That plus the fact that the Phillies would continue to bat in the bottom half of the inning in the event of a tie or the Padres’ lead means that San Diego, if Profar had walked would have had a fairly modest 23.47 percent chance of winning Game 3. .

Things as they were in reality after Tichenor’s call — runner on first and one out — gave the Padres a 6.59 percent chance to win Game 3. Yes, they were very likely to lose anyway even if Profar had reached, but they would’ I was almost four times more likely to make the return. Maybe you push that 23.47 percent figure a little higher given that Domínguez was in his second inning of work and Profar’s feat would have left him still needing the fourth, fifth and sixth outs of his night.

None of that happened, however, and the Phillies are up 2-1 in this best of seven duel for the pennant. Tichenor’s call, which, again, may not have been wrong, did not directly result in that outcome, but it did make it a little more likely.

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